Thursday forecast: Mostly sunny but cool

Best chance of storms Friday night through Saturday night with severe weather possible Saturday evening
Published: May. 6, 2021 at 4:07 AM CDT|Updated: May. 6, 2021 at 11:21 AM CDT
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TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) - The cool temperatures continue with Saturday being the warmest day. However the positioning of a warm front Saturday could bring a wide range in temperatures for Saturday. The front will also be a key factor as to where severe weather will occur by Saturday evening.

The main focus will be on the highest risk for t-storms Friday night through Saturday night with the risk for severe weather late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. All other rain chances in the 8 day will come with a low threat of lightning. Saturday night is also the best chance for heavy rain at times and rain being more widespread while the other chances will be more isolated to scattered with many spots staying dry.

Latest models are indicating most areas will be in the range of 0.75″-1.5″ of rain through the next 8 days. Of course as always there will be exceptions with less rain in some areas and more rain in other areas.

8 Day
8 Day(WIBW)

This Afternoon: Plenty of Sun. Winds N 5-15, gusts up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Winds become calm.

Tomorrow: Some sun possible early but it won’t last as clouds will increase with a slight chance of rain late morning into the afternoon. There does remain some uncertainty on how widespread the rain will be and where the best chance of rain will be so the details will need to be fine-tuned tomorrow on how that might affect your outdoor plans. Highs in the upper 60s-low 70s. Winds SW/S 5-10 mph.

Scattered showers/storms Friday night into Saturday morning then the question is how will the atmosphere recover after this round. Will there be clearing and sun on Saturday before the storms late in the day into Saturday night develop? This will be important for how widespread the severe weather will be. Be prepared for all modes of severe weather after 5pm Saturday but please check back on Saturday itself for specific updates. Highs have the potential to range from around 60° near the Nebraska border to mid-upper 70s near I-35. Again the front will be key along with cloud cover and rain as to how warm it’ll get. Winds SE/E 10-20, gusts up to 25 mph.

Mother’s Day Sunday may have some lingering showers, possibly a t-storm in the morning otherwise mainly dry by the afternoon. It’ll be cool and in the 60s with very little sun if any. Winds N 10-20, gusts up to 30 mph.

Next week remains cool and in the 60s as models have delayed the warming trend until Thursday (yesterday’s models hinted at the warming trend starting Wednesday). There will be a couple rain chances but none that stand out as a significant chance for widespread healthy rainfall totals.

Taking Action:

  1. Friday through Sunday has at least a chance for rain at some point during the day in some locations. These will not be widespread rain chances that will hold off until Saturday night so any outdoor plans you have on these days keep those plans but remain weather aware on the risk for showers.
  2. Lightning may be a hazard as early as tomorrow however the chance increases with any rain by Friday night through early Sunday morning. Hail/wind and possibly a tornado can’t be ruled out late Saturday afternoon into the evening.
Any storms after 4pm: Main threat hail/wind however a tornado can't be ruled out.
Any storms after 4pm: Main threat hail/wind however a tornado can't be ruled out.(SPC/WIBW)
Severe Thunderstorm Risks Factors
Severe Thunderstorm Risks Factors(SPC/WIBW)

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