Sunday forecast: Warm and windy

Warm through mid-week, rain chances increase to end the work week
Published: Mar. 7, 2021 at 6:57 AM CST
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TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) - Warm and windy will be the big weather story through mid-week with rain chances increasing to end the week.

Gusts at least 20 mph are likely everyday through next week which when combined with the warm temperatures, low relative humidity values and the lack of moisture recently will lead to a fire danger threat. Outdoor burning is not recommended and in some counties banned to avoid uncontrollable fires.

The good news is increasing chances for rain does exist for the second half of the work week into next weekend. However with that said there does remain differences in the long range models on the overall weather pattern and the chances for rain. One model has a front stalled out in the area giving us several rounds of rain Friday through next weekend while the other model has the front progressing south taking with it the rain which means we would be completely dry next weekend. Right now the forecast indicates rain so am leaning more toward the first scenario of the front stalling nearby but this will definitely be something to monitor through the week.

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Today: Sunny. Highs in the upper 60s-low 70s. Winds S 15-25, gusts up to 35 mph.

Tonight: Mostly Clear. Lows in the low-mid 40s. Winds S 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow: Increasing Clouds. Highs in the low-mid 70s. Winds S 15-30, gusts up to 30 mph.

Tuesday will likely be dry however there does remain some differences in rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. Clouds could also play a factor into Wednesday’s high temperatures. Leaning toward highs near 80° on Wednesday however if clouds are thicker and rain develops earlier it may not get that warm.

Rain is looking more likely beginning Wednesday night into at least Thursday morning. After that is where the models differ as mentioned above. It is expected to get cooler but just how cool will depend on rain.

Taking Action:

  1. Outdoor burning is not recommended with the extreme fire danger threat this afternoon. We’ll likely see an elevated fire danger everyday this week where outdoor burning may even be banned in some counties.
  2. Next best chance of rain is Wednesday night where a few t-storms will be possible. Right now the threat for strong or severe storms is low but that could change too so keep checking back daily for updates.

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