Tuesday night forecast: Coats ready for weekend

Warming continues through Thursday
Published: Oct. 20, 2020 at 5:44 PM CDT
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TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) - Expect a warming trend through Thursday. After Thursday we may be talking more winter weather by this weekend into early next week in the form of cold temperatures and even the potential for our first snow of the season.

Speaking of precipitation there is the opportunity for rain tomorrow however it’s not expected to be heavy, and will likely be less than 0.10″. There is a better chance of more measurable rain Wednesday night as a warm front lifts north. That warm front will come back as a cold front late Thursday into Thursday night bringing another round of showers and even t-storms. This will bring a major cool down Friday lasting into early next week.

There is a storm system Sunday into Sunday night that may bring some winter precipitation to the area. Keep in mind that when forecasting precipitation, you can’t just look at the surface temperature, the temperatures about a mile above the surface is expected to be below zero which means a wintry mix could still fall during the day Sunday with surface temperatures above freezing. Still too far out for specifics so we’ll keep on eye on this throughout the week.

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Tonight: Mostly Cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s-mid 40s. Winds become calm.

Tomorrow: Cloudy. Chance of showers possibly a t-storm mainly in the afternoon. Highs will depend on how far north the warm front gets. Highs may range anywhere from the 50s to near 70° from north to south. Check back tomorrow for an update. Winds E 5-10 mph (southerly wind behind the front).

Showers/storms will continue to develop Wednesday night. Right now the highest chance for rain will remain north of I-70 out ahead of the front. Lows will be very warm, almost summer like with mid-upper 50s and potentially getting warmer throughout the night in the 60s by sunrise.

Think we’ll have mostly sunny or at least more sun Thursday compared to any other day this week before showers/storms develop from that warm front turning back as a cold front after 3pm. Highs will rebound in the 80s with strong southerly winds 40 to even 45 mph leading to a potential wind advisory on this day. Because of the higher dew points don’t think there will be a fire danger threat however we’ll have to watch the conditions behind the cold front.

By Friday highs may struggle to reach 50° however other than any leftover rain showers early in the morning it will be dry with gusts around 25 mph.

This weekend will certainly bring a feel of winter with the potential for some spots to get down in the upper 20s if not Saturday morning any morning through early next week so the first freeze is looking likely at some point in the next 7 nights for all of northeast Kansas. We’re monitoring a storm system to impact the central plains by Sunday, of course a lot can change in the track and details between now and then so check back everyday for updates.

Taking Action:

  1. Best chances for rain will be Wednesday night and late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night but don’t be surprised by some rain today or tomorrow and remember if you hear thunder, go indoors.
  2. Get ready for winter weather by this weekend both with the potential for the first freeze but the first snow of the season. Keep in mind we don’t make official snowfall forecasts more than 36 hours ahead of the first snowfall. If you see it from us on social media or on TV, beyond 36 hours remember it’s only a model that we’re showing and it will likely change. ALWAYS check on the day that snow is in the forecast in case there are changes to the forecast on how much snow will fall, remember snow is by far the hardest to forecast.

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