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Thursday forecast: Unseasonably cool to end the week

Warming back up Saturday before another cold front Saturday night
Published: Oct. 15, 2020 at 4:06 AM CDT|Updated: Oct. 15, 2020 at 11:40 AM CDT
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TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) - The coolest high so far this month has been 65° which occurred on October 1st and today and tomorrow will be cooler and more in the low-mid 60s. We’ve been spoiled with warm weather for much of the month but the weather pattern will mainly consist of unseasonably cool temperatures with Saturday the exception with a warm day.

Uncertainties still exist after Saturday but confidence is beginning to increase. The computer model that kept temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Sunday has come down to highs more in the upper 50s while the other computer model is still keeping highs in the low-mid 50s. Clouds could have a factor in to how warm it gets for Sunday but guaranteed to be colder than Saturday.

Next work week consists of several chances of rain however low confidence on exact timing and how widespread the rain is going to be. Will keep the rain chance in on Monday due to consistency purposes but don’t be surprised if it has to be removed from the forecast. As warm air starts to move back in, showers with even a few t-storms could move through Tuesday night through Thursday morning. While a gradual warming trend is noted in the 8 day, temperatures may struggle to warm on some days due to rain. Bottom line: Fine tuning of the forecast each day will continue so don’t be surprised by changes.

8 Day Forecast
8 Day Forecast(WIBW)

This Afternoon: Mostly Sunny. Highs in the upper 50s-low 60s. Winds N/NW 10-20 mph.

Tonight: Partly Cloudy. Patchy frost can’t be ruled out. Lows in the mid-upper 30s. Winds NW/SW around 5 mph.

Tomorrow: Few leftover clouds possible early otherwise mostly sunny. Highs in the low-mid 60s. Winds W 5-15 mph.

This weekend will be the tale of two seasons with highs in the low-mid 70s Saturday, winds will be out of the south-southwest gusting up to 35 mph. By Sunday while there is a very small chance for precipitation near HWY 36 early in the morning (minimal impacts if any precipitation even forms) highs will be stuck in the 50s with winds NE 5-10 mph. The uncertainty is starting to be more if highs will be stuck in the low 50s or are able to warm in the mid-upper 50s.

Next week may be cool again Monday with a slight rain chance before warming in the 60s by Tuesday. Right now the highest chance for rain will be Tuesday night through Thursday morning based on the latest computer models but note that the last couple days that wasn’t the case so changes to the forecast are still likely to be made as we get closer to next week.

Taking Action:

  1. A cool end to the work week where jackets are needed including the fact there is a chance of patchy frost tonight
  2. Saturday is the day to enjoy this weekend with the warmer weather before turning colder again Sunday with an even stronger cold front than what yesterday to today is.
  3. Confidence is increasing that many spots will get the first rain of the month sometime next week, uncertainty exists on when so stay updated.

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