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Monday forecast: Monitoring a risk for storms with severe weather possible

An unsettled weather pattern with several chances for storms this week
Published: Aug. 10, 2020 at 4:10 AM CDT|Updated: Aug. 10, 2020 at 11:38 AM CDT
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TOPEKA, Kan. (WIBW) - The big weather story this week is the temperatures near or below average and the several opportunities for hit and miss showers/storms everyday and everynight this week. Don’t be concerned, we’re not looking at all day or all night washouts, there will be several hours that it will be dry however there will be times you may get locally heavy rainfall for a period of time this week.

Yesterday was a perfect example of how the forecast was a bit off. Rain from overnight lasted a little longer than expected and even had redevelopment of storms in the evening near I-35 which models did not pick up on. It also kept many spots about 5° cooler than expected. This is not to say it won’t happen again this week where rain (chances of rain this week mainly occur at night) lingers longer during the day than expected.

8 Day Forecast
8 Day Forecast(WIBW)

This Afternoon: Showers/storms will continue at times the rest of the day. Low confidence remains on when and where. Cloud cover will factor in to how strong or severe the storms will be but we will have to monitor the hail/wind threat. Highs will be in the upper 80s-low 90s. Winds SW/E 5-10 mph.

Tonight: Slight chance of storms. IF there is going to be severe weather it would occur before midnight. Lows in the upper 60s-low 70s. Winds E around 5 mph.

Tomorrow: Other than a stray shower/storm early in the morning it’ll be dry and partly sunny with highs in the mid-upper 80s. Winds SE 5-10 mph.

The weather of tomorrow will be the trend for the remainder of the week with highs mainly in the mid-upper 80s and the chance storms from the previous night lingers into the morning hours.

By the weekend the highs may rebound back in the low 90s Saturday before a cold front pushes through Saturday night which only one model is indicating storms with the cold front while the other one is dry so will keep it dry in the 8 day for now until there’s more consistency. Temperatures drop down in the mid-upper 80s Sunday and Monday which could set up the long term through the middle part of next week below average temperature wise.

Taking Action:

  1. With a tricky forecast throughout the week, check back often (at least in the morning and at night but there will also be a midday update everyday which will be updated by noon before Midday in Kansas). Check the radar before heading out especially if you’re going to be outside for a period of time and have the radar handy. Remember if there are changes to the forecast that doesn’t mean we were wrong, it means we’re doing our job re-examining the current weather and looking at the latest models to fine tune the forecast.
  2. If I had to choose days where there will be a better chance of storms during the day relative to other days where you need to be extra aware, it’s today and Thursday. The other days are trending toward mostly dry conditions during the day especially after any morning leftover storms from overnight.
Wind the main threat, hail is also possible. Conditional threat with storms Monday afternoon into Monday night
Wind the main threat, hail is also possible. Conditional threat with storms Monday afternoon into Monday night(SPC/WIBW)
Explanation of the 5 risks, and general thunderstorms. From the Storm Prediction Center.
Explanation of the 5 risks, and general thunderstorms. From the Storm Prediction Center.(WIBW)

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