Hurricane Watch - Texas

TROPICAL STORM ALEX LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1112 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...ALEX INTENSIFYING AND HEADED TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...KING RANCH...AND THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL
WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
KENEDY...COASTAL WILLACY AND COASTAL CAMERON...AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE LAGUNA MADRE.

A HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
INLAND WILLACY AND INLAND CAMERON COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...HIDALGO COUNTY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 10 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.3N...LONGITUDE 91.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT 530 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND SOUTH PADRE ISLAND TX. THE STORM WAS
MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY LATE TUESDAY...ALEX SHOULD
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AND MAY REACH CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH AS IT
EDGES TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO OR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY LARGE IN SIZE...QUITE A BIT
MORE THAN DOLLY IN 2008. THUS...IMPACTS FROM WIND...RAIN...AND
STORM SURGE MAY IMPACT A FAIRLY LARGE AREA EVEN IF THE CENTER OF
THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL DOZENS OF MILES NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE CURRENT FORECAST SPEED...SIZE...AND INTENSITY SUGGESTS A
VARIETY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS FOR DIFFERENT PORTIONS OF THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. FOR ALL AREAS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...PERHAPS RIVALING THOSE FROM HURRICANE
DOLLY IN 2008. INLAND FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE
LOCATIONS WILL OCCUR IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OR SOMETHING
SIMILAR...WITH LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS OR NORTHEAST MEXICAN
COAST...OCCURS.

COASTAL COUNTIES OF CAMERON AND WILLACY WILL LIKELY HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM WINDS...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
BECOMING MORE CERTAIN AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS A POSSIBILITY. IN
ADDITION...THE DEGREE OF STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW LARGE AND HOW STRONG ALEX BECOMES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ULTIMATELY THE GENERAL LOCATION OF LANDFALL.

BOATERS WILL SURELY SEE DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS NO MATTER WHERE ON
THE COAST ALEX MAKES LANDFALL...IF AT ALL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BECOME A THREAT SHOULD ALEX MAKE LANDFALL AND MOVE WELL INLAND
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AND
PERHAPS FRIDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR EVACUATION EXISTS AND LOCAL JURISDICTIONS ARE
MAKING PLANS FOR NOTIFICATION.

FOR PERSONAL PREPAREDNESS DETAILS...GO TO H T T P: WEATHER.GOV/RGV/?N=HURRPREP.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

TXZ251-256-257-290300-
/O.NEW.KBRO.HU.A.1001.100628T1612Z-000000T0000Z/
KENEDY-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
1112 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010

...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED. INITIAL POTENTIAL IMPACT
INFORMATION FOLLOWS.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY WILL BECOME NUMEROUS WEDNESDAY...WITH
SQUALLS LIKELY ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT ALEX WILL BE A SLOW MOVING
CYCLONE WHILE MOVING ALONG OR INTO THE NORTHEAST MEXICO OR SOUTH
TEXAS COAST...WHICH WOULD BRING FLOODING RAINS INTO THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. STORM TOTALS COULD RANGE FROM 7 TO 12 INCHES...BUT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 12
INCHES BEFORE THE SITUATION STARTS TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY ARRIVE IN GUSTS AS EARLY AS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH STEADIER WINDS REACHING THE COAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SIZE...STRENGTH...AND LOCATION
OF THE EYEWALL AT LANDFALL.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN BUILDING ALONG SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TIDES RUNNING 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. WITH ALEX EXPECTED TO BECOME A
FAIRLY LARGE STORM AND MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY...TIDAL RUN UP AND WAVE
SETUP COULD BECOME AN ISSUE FOR THE DUNES WELL AHEAD OF LANDFALL.
THE GENERAL HEIGHT OF STORM SURGE AND POSSIBLE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE
DETERMINED AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZES AND INTENSIFIES...WITH THE
HIGHEST SURGE OCCURRING TO THE RIGHT OF LANDFALL.

LANDFALL AT THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER OR JUST SOUTH WOULD PRODUCE THE
HIGHEST SURGE FOR SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...PORT ISABEL...AND THE
BROWNSVILLE SHIP CHANNEL.


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