2010 Spring Flood Outlook for Kansas

PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1028 AM CST FRI MAR 5 2010

...2010 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

THIS OUTLOOK APPLIES TO THE TOPEKA HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA)
WHICH INCLUDES THE BIG BLUE RIVER...LITTLE BLUE RIVER...REPUBLICAN
RIVER...SOLOMON RIVER...SALINE RIVER...SMOKY HILL RIVER...KANSAS
RIVER...MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER...COTTONWOOD RIVER...NEOSHO RIVER
AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES IN NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

OUTLOOKS ARE ROUTINELY ISSUED IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH TO GIVE ADVANCED
NOTICE OF POSSIBLE FLOODING. THEY ARE BASED ON SOIL
MOISTURE...SNOWPACK MAGNITUDE AND STREAMFLOW AT THE TIME THE OUTLOOK
IS ISSUED. OUTLOOKS ARE ALSO BASED ON NORMAL FUTURE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION. THUS...IF FUTURE CONDITIONS ARE NOT NORMAL...THEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF FLOODING EXPERIENCED WILL DIFFER FROM THIS OUTLOOK. THE
VAST MAJORITY OF FLOOD EVENTS IN THE TOPEKA HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA
RESULT FROM SHORT PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION...OR
LONGER PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION.

THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FROM MARCH 5 2010 TO JUN 5 2010.

IN THE TABLE BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THAT A LOCATION ON A RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE
LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE: THE TURKEY CREEK NEAR
SENECA HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 21 FEET. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THE RIVER WILL RISE ABOVE 22.0 FEET IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS.

ALL STAGES IN FEET

LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
TURKEY CREEK
SENECA 8NW 21.0 10.1 11.7 13.0 14.1 15.3 16.4 19.3 22.0 23.5

BIG BLUE RIVER
MARYSVILLE 35.0 20.1 20.2 20.9 21.5 24.7 25.6 26.6 29.0 31.0
BLUE RAPIDS 26.0 23.7 24.0 25.1 26.7 29.9 31.4 32.9 34.5 35.9

LITTLE BLUE RIVER
HOLLENBERG 19.0 6.4 6.4 7.3 8.0 9.3 10.5 11.8 12.9 13.6
BARNES 16.0 9.2 9.6 11.1 13.4 15.2 17.3 17.8 18.9 20.5

MILL CREEK - WASHINGTON COUNTY
WASHINGTON 18.0 5.1 8.7 11.8 13.4 15.4 16.5 19.3 21.0 22.9

BLACK VERMILLION RIVER
FRANKFORT 19.0 7.6 15.2 18.9 21.5 22.2 23.9 24.9 25.8 27.1

FANCY CREEK
RANDOLPH 16.0 8.9 11.7 12.5 12.9 14.2 15.1 18.5 20.9 23.1

COTTONWOOD RIVER
EMPORIA 20.0 7.1 12.0 14.9 19.0 20.7 21.4 23.8 25.2 25.7

NEOSHO RIVER
AMERICUS 26.0 10.3 12.3 14.1 15.9 19.1 24.5 25.7 26.3 27.4
EMPORIA 19.0 12.4 13.2 14.1 14.9 16.7 20.7 22.4 23.7 24.4
NEOSHO RAPIDS 22.0 9.8 13.6 16.9 18.6 21.5 23.3 25.3 25.9 26.9
BURLINGTON 27.0 9.5 11.4 12.2 13.5 15.1 17.5 17.8 18.8 20.5
LEROY 23.0 10.2 11.6 13.3 15.6 16.6 17.7 20.7 22.8 26.3

CURRENTLY NO SNOW COVER REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THERE
REMAINS AROUND AN INCH OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF NEHAMA AND BROWN
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS.

PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 60 DAYS WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE BEEN ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK FROM
FEBRUARY SNOWS AND RAINFALL.

THE FOLLOWING RIVERS HAVE AN ABOVE NORMAL CHANCE OF FLOODING OVER
THE NEXT 90 DAYS:
BIG BLUE RIVER...BLACK VERMILLION...LITTLE BLUE RIVER AND THE MILL
CREEK IN WASHINGTON COUNTY.

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. PRESENT STREAMFLOW AND SOIL MOISTURE VALUES SUGGEST THAT ANY
FUTURE HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD LEAD TO AN ENHANCED CHANCE FOR FLOODING.

THE LATEST 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 12 TO MARCH 18 INDICATES AN
INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES
FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

SIMILARLY...THE LATEST 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MARCH...APRIL...AND MAY
SLIGHTLY FAVORS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND INDICATES EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE...NEAR...AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOPEKA FOR MORE WEATHER AND
FLOOD INFORMATION.


631 SW Commerce Pl. Topeka, Kansas 66615 phone: 785-272-6397 fax: 785-272-1363 email: feedback@wibw.com
Copyright © 2002-2014 - Designed by Gray Digital Media - Powered by Clickability 86606437 - wibw.com/a?a=86606437
Gray Television, Inc.