Severe Storms Possible Wednesday

Severe Storms Possible Wednesday

Orange on this image indicates area with a "slight risk" of Severe Storms on Wednesday.

From Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma:

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FROM OK NWD
INTO NEB. A SEASONABLY MOIST /PW GENERALLY ABOVE 1 INCH/ AND
RELATIVELY HOMOGENEOUS WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PLAINS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD FROM S-CNTRL KS INTO W TX.

IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY GIVEN MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE LLJ. THIS...ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...IS EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN
OCCUR...AND WILL PROVE DIFFICULT FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...IF POCKETS OF HEATING CAN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
LOWER 70S F...MOIST CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 1000-1500
J/KG IN SOME LOCATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN
DEVELOP...BUT INITIALLY BROAD AND WEAKLY FOCUSED FORCING FOR ASCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA YIELDS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

THE PRIMARY SFC LOW PRECEDING A LEAD SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER ERN NEB BY
31/00Z...BUT THE DEGREE OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR
INVOF THE LOW IS QUESTIONABLE. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD...CONVECTIVE
RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
FROM WRN OK INTO ERN KS...AND THE PRIMARY VORT LOBE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD. A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO EARLY THU MORNING...BUT THE PRIMARY
RISK SHOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL.


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