Severe Storms Possible Central KS Monday

There is a slight risk of severe storms late Monday into Monday evening for areas in central Kansas. A few cities in and around the WIBW 13 viewing area include Concordia, Clay Center, Abilene, Salina, Minneapolis, Bennington. The greatest threat is hail and wind and although low there is an isolated tornado risk. Latest indications shift the severe threat south of Kansas Tuesday through Thursday despite thunderstorms in the forecast.

The following is the technical discussion from the Storm Prediction Center:

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TX/WESTERN OK AND KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL MOST NOTABLY BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN
AMPLIFYING/SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...WITH STRENGTHENING /90+ KT/ AND INCREASINGLY PHASED
POLAR/SUBTROPICAL JETS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES. TO THE
EAST...SHORTWAVE RIDGING/GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
STATES...GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH A BELT OF MODERATELY
STRONG/CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES OR WEAK HEIGHT
RISES...THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF THE OZARKS/LOWER
MO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. BY AFTERNOON...UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY COMMON WITHIN A WARM/MOIST SECTOR
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A SHARPENING FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS TO THE
LOWER MO VALLEY. ADJACENT TO THIS FRONT WILL BE A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW AND A SHARPENING/SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

POTENTIALLY AIDED BY AN EASTWARD-MOVING SUBTROPICAL-ASSOCIATED
DISTURBANCE AND SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES/AMPLE MIXING NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SURFACE BASED TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITHIN A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. THIS WOULD BE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WEST TX INTO THE OK
PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHWEST KS. PROVIDED SUCH
DEVELOPMENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY /1000-2000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ AND
45+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR SUPERCELLS
INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY SOME TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
INCREASINGLY LONG LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BY EVENING.

TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF KS AND THE ADJACENT MO VALLEY AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION
ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE. AT LEAST SOME SEVERE HAIL
RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MONDAY
EVENING...AND PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.


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