Challenges of Forecasting Temperatures

Predicting temperatures can be very tricky at times especially for this time of year. There are many factors determining what the high and low temperatures are going to be. The obvious feature is clouds which keeps us warm during the night and keeps us cool during the day. At night clouds act as a blanket to keep the heat received during the day to escape back into space. During the day, if the clouds are thick enough that prevents the sun's UV rays to warm the surface of the earth keeping temperatures from warming. Another important factor of determining temperatures is the wind. A north wind brings in colder air from the north called cold air advection while a south wind brings in warmer weather from the south (warm air advection) and also brings in more moisture from the gulf. Winds also play a big factor especially in low temperatures, if winds are calm and skies are clear the temperature drops to the dewpoint temperature giving us 100% relative humidity. Even if winds are 3-5 mph with clear skies that would keep the temperature from dropping to the dewpoint. That's also the case with clouds, with a just a few clouds and winds calm that may be enough to keep the temperature from falling to the dewpoint. These are just a few factors to look at in order to predict accurately what the low and high are going to be.


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