Poll Of Polls: Obama Ahead Of Romney, But Slightly

By: CNN Posted By Doug Brown
By: CNN Posted By Doug Brown

(CNN) - President Barack Obama has a slight 3-point advantage over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Thursday's CNN Poll of Polls, a sample of three recent national surveys of the presidential race.

It shows Obama at 48% and Romney at 45%.

The CNN Poll of Polls includes the most recent CNN/ORC International Poll, which was conducted between June 28 and July 1; the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll, conducted between June 27 and July 3; and the Newsweek/Daily Beast Poll, conducted on June 28.

Obama's advantage over Romney is within the sampling error of each survey. As an average of other polls, the CNN Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.

In the CNN/ORC International Poll, Obama is ahead of Romney, 49% to 46%. The sampling error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The Gallup poll includes results of the past seven days and has Obama over Romney, 48% to 44%, with a sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points.

Obama has 47% and Romney 44% in the Newsweek/Daily Beast poll. While the CNN and Gallup polls include registered voters, the Newsweek survey includes only likely voters and has a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

The CNN poll also showed Romney with an advantage over Obama in the 15 states listed as battlegrounds on the CNN Electoral Map. Romney was ahead of Obama 51% to 43% in those states, including those that are leaning but not solid for Obama or Romney and those which appear to be true tossups.

The battleground survey indicates that Romney clearly has a big advantage in some of those 15 states, but the data does not indicate which states he is currently winning or how big that advantage may actually be. Neither candidate needs to win all 15 of those states in order to win the general election, so the aggregate results from all 15 states do not forecast an Obama loss or a Romney victory.

Those battleground numbers are not part of the CNN Poll of Polls.

The CNN Poll of Polls is not a scientific survey.

– CNN's Paul Steinhauser and Gregory Wallace contributed to this report


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