May 22, 2013

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Thu Apr 23 12:55:30 PDT 2009
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Reporter: Jeremy Goodwin Jeremy.goodwin@wibw.com

NBAF Tornado Argument - Manhattan Vs. San Antonio

"What.... are they talking about?" That was my reaction when I read this statement quoted by the Associated Press on Wednesdsay.

 

"The Texas consortium’s chairman, John Kerr, said the Kansas site was improperly chosen because DHS ignored the high risk of tornadoes in the region, pointing to a tornado with 200 mph winds that struck the site last year. Damage to the facility could cause the release of deadly airborne pathogens, Kerr said.

“The selection of Manhattan, Kan., was grossly irresponsible, the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with Mother Nature,” he said."

 

Why should this concern you?  Because these folks intend to file a suit in an attempt to take the recently awarded $450 million National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility away from Kansas.  Part of the claim... is that Manhattan Kansas, is a bigger tornado danger than San Antonio Texas.  It's an interesting claim.  It's also quite false.

San Antonio, is in Bexar County Texas. 

Manhattan is in Riley County Kansas. 

According to the National Data Climate Center - US Department of Commerce... Bexar County has recorded 59 tornado touchdowns since 1950, and Riley County has recorded 22 confirmed touchdowns.  Discussion over?  Now, let's be completely fair to Bexar County... it is a larger county in area than Riley County.  Bexar is almost 1250 square miles, and Riley County is about 625 square miles.  That's about a 2 to 1 ratio.  Here is the math.

Apples to Apples...
Bexar County(San Antonio) has recorded 59 confirmed tornadoes since 1950.
Riley County(Manhattan) has recorded 22 confirmed tornadoes since 1950.
 
To make "Apples to Apples"... the same size of apple...
Bexar County is 2.02 times larger than Riley County.
 
Sooooo....  22  x 2.02 = 44.44(adjusted Riley County value to fairly represent tornadoes per square mile vs. Bexar)
 
And...
Bexar 59    /      Adjusted Riley County 44.44    =   1.32
Or... simply stated, Bexar County has recorded a 32% higher tornado frequency, per square mile over the past 59 years verses Riley County Kansas. 

It seems unfair to claim that “The selection of Manhattan, Kan., was grossly irresponsible, the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with Mother Nature".  Frankly, it appears that San Antonio, may have been a more dangerous choice in relation to tornadoes. 

The data follows.  You may also view this data by visiting:

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms

 

Texas
Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD
1 BEXAR 04/28/1953 2100 Tornado F4 2 15 0K 0
2 BEXAR 04/15/1954 1500 Tornado F1 0 0 0K 0
3 BEXAR 07/12/1954 1750 Tornado F2 0 0 3K 0
4 BEXAR 05/15/1955 1930 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
5 BEXAR 05/03/1958 0230 Tornado F2 0 0 25K 0
6 BEXAR 05/02/1959 0350 Tornado F2 0 0 250K 0
7 BEXAR 05/10/1959 1600 Tornado F2 0 0 3K 0
8 BEXAR 07/20/1960 1200 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0
9 BEXAR 11/22/1961 0730 Tornado F3 0 0 3K 0
10 BEXAR 10/26/1964 2200 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
11 BEXAR 06/21/1965 1830 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
12 BEXAR 04/17/1966 1845 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
13 BEXAR 09/20/1967 0528 Tornado F 0 0 0K 0
14 BEXAR 09/24/1967 1913 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0
15 BEXAR 09/09/1968 1600 Tornado F1 0 2 3K 0
16 BEXAR 05/03/1969 0500 Tornado F2 0 0 250K 0
17 BEXAR 05/16/1969 0730 Tornado F2 0 3 250K 0
18 BEXAR 04/18/1970 1830 Tornado F2 0 0 25K 0
19 BEXAR 05/14/1970 1740 Tornado F1 0 1 25K 0
20 BEXAR 09/13/1970 1500 Tornado F2 0 0 3K 0
21 BEXAR 06/13/1971 2002 Tornado F1 0 0 0K 0
22 BEXAR 03/15/1972 1730 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
23 BEXAR 04/27/1972 1554 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
24 BEXAR 09/26/1972 1600 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0
25 BEXAR 11/01/1977 1215 Tornado F1 0 0 250K 0
26 BEXAR 04/20/1979 2310 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
27 BEXAR 08/10/1980 0857 Tornado F2 0 2 250K 0
28 BEXAR 08/10/1980 0950 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
29 BEXAR 08/10/1980 1835 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
30 BEXAR 08/30/1981 1545 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
31 BEXAR 10/07/1981 0100 Tornado F1 0 0 250K 0
32 BEXAR 02/12/1984 0310 Tornado F0 0 0 25K 0
33 BEXAR 02/12/1984 0315 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
34 BEXAR 02/12/1984 0320 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
35 BEXAR 02/12/1984 0325 Tornado F0 0 0 3K 0
36 BEXAR 04/07/1984 1600 Tornado F0 0 0 3K 0
37 BEXAR 05/07/1984 1620 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
38 BEXAR 09/17/1988 0445 Tornado F1 1 1 2.5M 0
39 BEXAR 09/17/1988 0549 Tornado F2 0 3 25.0M 0
40 BEXAR 09/17/1988 0630 Tornado F1 0 3 25.0M 0
41 BEXAR 03/29/1992 1450 Tornado F0 0 0 25K 0
42 BEXAR 03/27/1994 0105 Tornado F0 0 0 1K 1K
43 Somerset 02/25/1998 09:23 PM Tornado F1 0 0 25K 3K
44 Leon Vly 03/28/2000 07:11 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
45 Macdona 05/19/2000 06:41 PM Tornado F0 0 0 20K 0
46 San Antonio 05/19/2000 07:50 PM Tornado F0 0 0 40K 0
47 San Antonio 10/23/2000 02:35 AM Tornado F0 0 0 50K 0
48 Von Ormy 03/19/2002 07:15 PM Tornado F0 0 0 500K 0
49 Von Ormy 03/19/2002 07:17 PM Tornado F0 0 0 500K 0
50 Von Ormy 03/19/2002 07:17 PM Tornado F1 0 0 500K 0
51 Von Ormy 03/19/2002 07:19 PM Tornado F1 0 0 500K 0
52 Somerset 03/19/2002 07:20 PM Tornado F2 0 30 2.0M 0
53 Somerset 03/19/2002 07:25 PM Tornado F1 0 0 1.0M 0
54 Helotes 12/30/2002 02:37 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
55 Von Ormy 11/16/2004 06:40 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
56 Kelly Afb 11/16/2004 07:23 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
57 Grey Forest 11/16/2004 07:27 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
58 San Antonio 07/15/2007 01:30 AM Tornado F1 0 0 50K 0K
59 San Antonio 07/24/2008 08:20 AM Tornado F0 0 0 800K 0K
TOTALS: 3 60 60.261M 4K

 

 

 

 

Kansas
Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD
1 RILEY 05/09/1950 0001 Tornado F 0 0 25K 0
2 RILEY 05/24/1950 1730 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
3 RILEY 07/01/1950 1200 Tornado F1 0 1 25K 0
4 RILEY 05/30/1951 2250 Tornado F 0 0 3K 0
5 RILEY 04/22/1952 1730 Tornado F 0 0 0K 0
6 RILEY 03/18/1954 1200 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0
7 RILEY 06/19/1956 1715 Tornado F1 0 0 0K 0
8 RILEY 05/18/1962 2110 Tornado F 0 0 0K 0
9 RILEY 06/08/1966 1800 Tornado F3 0 50 2.5M 0
10 RILEY 05/02/1968 1950 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
11 RILEY 07/09/1969 1530 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
12 RILEY 10/18/1979 1630 Tornado F0 0 0 3K 0
13 RILEY 06/21/1981 0300 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
14 Keats 06/22/1996 04:44 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
15 Manhattan Arpt 10/08/1997 04:15 PM Tornado F0 0 0 80K 0
16 Ogden 09/07/2001 05:00 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
17 Ogden 11/27/2005 03:12 PM Tornado F1 0 0 800K 0
18 Keats 11/27/2005 03:28 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
19 Riley 11/27/2005 03:32 PM Tornado F0 0 0 5K 0
20 Randolph 11/27/2005 03:49 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
21 Zeandale 05/05/2007 21:34 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0K
22 Ogden 06/11/2008 21:48 PM Tornado F4 0 0 0K 0K
TOTALS: 0 51 3.468M 0

 

 

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