NBAF Tornado Argument - Manhattan Vs. San Antonio
NBAF Tornado Argument - Manhattan Vs. San AntonioWIBW Blog Listing
NBAF Tornado Argument - Manhattan Vs. San Antonio
Topic Author: Jeremy Goodwin
Posted: 2:55 PM Apr 23, 2009
Replies Posted: 19 comments
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"What.... are they talking about?" That was my reaction when I read this statement quoted by the Associated Press on Wednesdsay.

 

"The Texas consortium’s chairman, John Kerr, said the Kansas site was improperly chosen because DHS ignored the high risk of tornadoes in the region, pointing to a tornado with 200 mph winds that struck the site last year. Damage to the facility could cause the release of deadly airborne pathogens, Kerr said.

“The selection of Manhattan, Kan., was grossly irresponsible, the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with Mother Nature,” he said."

 

Why should this concern you?  Because these folks intend to file a suit in an attempt to take the recently awarded $450 million National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility away from Kansas.  Part of the claim... is that Manhattan Kansas, is a bigger tornado danger than San Antonio Texas.  It's an interesting claim.  It's also quite false.

San Antonio, is in Bexar County Texas. 

Manhattan is in Riley County Kansas. 

According to the National Data Climate Center - US Department of Commerce... Bexar County has recorded 59 tornado touchdowns since 1950, and Riley County has recorded 22 confirmed touchdowns.  Discussion over?  Now, let's be completely fair to Bexar County... it is a larger county in area than Riley County.  Bexar is almost 1250 square miles, and Riley County is about 625 square miles.  That's about a 2 to 1 ratio.  Here is the math.

Apples to Apples...
Bexar County(San Antonio) has recorded 59 confirmed tornadoes since 1950.
Riley County(Manhattan) has recorded 22 confirmed tornadoes since 1950.
 
To make "Apples to Apples"... the same size of apple...
Bexar County is 2.02 times larger than Riley County.
 
Sooooo....  22  x 2.02 = 44.44(adjusted Riley County value to fairly represent tornadoes per square mile vs. Bexar)
 
And...
Bexar 59    /      Adjusted Riley County 44.44    =   1.32
Or... simply stated, Bexar County has recorded a 32% higher tornado frequency, per square mile over the past 59 years verses Riley County Kansas. 

It seems unfair to claim that “The selection of Manhattan, Kan., was grossly irresponsible, the equivalent of playing Russian roulette with Mother Nature".  Frankly, it appears that San Antonio, may have been a more dangerous choice in relation to tornadoes. 

The data follows.  You may also view this data by visiting:

http://www4.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-win/wwcgi.dll?wwevent~storms

 

Texas

Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD
1 BEXAR 04/28/1953 2100 Tornado F4 2 15 0K 0
2 BEXAR 04/15/1954 1500 Tornado F1 0 0 0K 0
3 BEXAR 07/12/1954 1750 Tornado F2 0 0 3K 0
4 BEXAR 05/15/1955 1930 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
5 BEXAR 05/03/1958 0230 Tornado F2 0 0 25K 0
6 BEXAR 05/02/1959 0350 Tornado F2 0 0 250K 0
7 BEXAR 05/10/1959 1600 Tornado F2 0 0 3K 0
8 BEXAR 07/20/1960 1200 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0
9 BEXAR 11/22/1961 0730 Tornado F3 0 0 3K 0
10 BEXAR 10/26/1964 2200 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
11 BEXAR 06/21/1965 1830 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
12 BEXAR 04/17/1966 1845 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
13 BEXAR 09/20/1967 0528 Tornado F 0 0 0K 0
14 BEXAR 09/24/1967 1913 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0
15 BEXAR 09/09/1968 1600 Tornado F1 0 2 3K 0
16 BEXAR 05/03/1969 0500 Tornado F2 0 0 250K 0
17 BEXAR 05/16/1969 0730 Tornado F2 0 3 250K 0
18 BEXAR 04/18/1970 1830 Tornado F2 0 0 25K 0
19 BEXAR 05/14/1970 1740 Tornado F1 0 1 25K 0
20 BEXAR 09/13/1970 1500 Tornado F2 0 0 3K 0
21 BEXAR 06/13/1971 2002 Tornado F1 0 0 0K 0
22 BEXAR 03/15/1972 1730 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
23 BEXAR 04/27/1972 1554 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
24 BEXAR 09/26/1972 1600 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0
25 BEXAR 11/01/1977 1215 Tornado F1 0 0 250K 0
26 BEXAR 04/20/1979 2310 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
27 BEXAR 08/10/1980 0857 Tornado F2 0 2 250K 0
28 BEXAR 08/10/1980 0950 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
29 BEXAR 08/10/1980 1835 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
30 BEXAR 08/30/1981 1545 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
31 BEXAR 10/07/1981 0100 Tornado F1 0 0 250K 0
32 BEXAR 02/12/1984 0310 Tornado F0 0 0 25K 0
33 BEXAR 02/12/1984 0315 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
34 BEXAR 02/12/1984 0320 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
35 BEXAR 02/12/1984 0325 Tornado F0 0 0 3K 0
36 BEXAR 04/07/1984 1600 Tornado F0 0 0 3K 0
37 BEXAR 05/07/1984 1620 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
38 BEXAR 09/17/1988 0445 Tornado F1 1 1 2.5M 0
39 BEXAR 09/17/1988 0549 Tornado F2 0 3 25.0M 0
40 BEXAR 09/17/1988 0630 Tornado F1 0 3 25.0M 0
41 BEXAR 03/29/1992 1450 Tornado F0 0 0 25K 0
42 BEXAR 03/27/1994 0105 Tornado F0 0 0 1K 1K
43 Somerset 02/25/1998 09:23 PM Tornado F1 0 0 25K 3K
44 Leon Vly 03/28/2000 07:11 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
45 Macdona 05/19/2000 06:41 PM Tornado F0 0 0 20K 0
46 San Antonio 05/19/2000 07:50 PM Tornado F0 0 0 40K 0
47 San Antonio 10/23/2000 02:35 AM Tornado F0 0 0 50K 0
48 Von Ormy 03/19/2002 07:15 PM Tornado F0 0 0 500K 0
49 Von Ormy 03/19/2002 07:17 PM Tornado F0 0 0 500K 0
50 Von Ormy 03/19/2002 07:17 PM Tornado F1 0 0 500K 0
51 Von Ormy 03/19/2002 07:19 PM Tornado F1 0 0 500K 0
52 Somerset 03/19/2002 07:20 PM Tornado F2 0 30 2.0M 0
53 Somerset 03/19/2002 07:25 PM Tornado F1 0 0 1.0M 0
54 Helotes 12/30/2002 02:37 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
55 Von Ormy 11/16/2004 06:40 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
56 Kelly Afb 11/16/2004 07:23 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
57 Grey Forest 11/16/2004 07:27 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
58 San Antonio 07/15/2007 01:30 AM Tornado F1 0 0 50K 0K
59 San Antonio 07/24/2008 08:20 AM Tornado F0 0 0 800K 0K
TOTALS: 3 60 60.261M 4K

 

 

 

 

Kansas
Location or County Date Time Type Mag Dth Inj PrD CrD
1 RILEY 05/09/1950 0001 Tornado F 0 0 25K 0
2 RILEY 05/24/1950 1730 Tornado F1 0 0 25K 0
3 RILEY 07/01/1950 1200 Tornado F1 0 1 25K 0
4 RILEY 05/30/1951 2250 Tornado F 0 0 3K 0
5 RILEY 04/22/1952 1730 Tornado F 0 0 0K 0
6 RILEY 03/18/1954 1200 Tornado F1 0 0 3K 0
7 RILEY 06/19/1956 1715 Tornado F1 0 0 0K 0
8 RILEY 05/18/1962 2110 Tornado F 0 0 0K 0
9 RILEY 06/08/1966 1800 Tornado F3 0 50 2.5M 0
10 RILEY 05/02/1968 1950 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
11 RILEY 07/09/1969 1530 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
12 RILEY 10/18/1979 1630 Tornado F0 0 0 3K 0
13 RILEY 06/21/1981 0300 Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
14 Keats 06/22/1996 04:44 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
15 Manhattan Arpt 10/08/1997 04:15 PM Tornado F0 0 0 80K 0
16 Ogden 09/07/2001 05:00 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
17 Ogden 11/27/2005 03:12 PM Tornado F1 0 0 800K 0
18 Keats 11/27/2005 03:28 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0
19 Riley 11/27/2005 03:32 PM Tornado F0 0 0 5K 0
20 Randolph 11/27/2005 03:49 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0 0
21 Zeandale 05/05/2007 21:34 PM Tornado F0 0 0 0K 0K
22 Ogden 06/11/2008 21:48 PM Tornado F4 0 0 0K 0K
TOTALS: 0 51 3.468M 0

 

 

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Posted by: Deanna Location: Kansas
Why have this facility located in a heavily populated area in the first place where tonadoes are, plus earthquakes?

Posted by: jacqueline Jeff from keats is correct. the one that hit keats was also reported as a f4 and the bad thing about it was that it started jumping all over the place from manhattan to olsburg

Posted by: Royce Location: Alma, KS
Interesting that number 22 on the Kansas list states Ogden when it actually hit the Kansas State University Campus and the west side of Manhattan (Amherst) on 6/11 last year. When it was reported on the weather that night it was stated that it was touched down near the Manhattan airport and you were picking up debris and people in Manhattan should take cover. I don't remember any comments about Ogden. A bit misleading don't you think?

Posted by: justin Location: manhattan
i still would rather have it in texas i mean kansas has the most cattle in world and they might be studing hoof and mouth i mean whats up the manhattan city officials

Posted by: Josephine Location: Gridley, Coffey County, KS
Last year around this time, GW county was under a tornado warning. You no more said, is it going to be extended to Coffey Co. and WHAM! We live in 2 trailer houses, put together in a T. We were sitting at the kitchen table, which is located at the bottom of the T. My husband said, if we'd of been standing up, it would have knocked us down. We left home in a hurry, and went to a safer place. When we got home, later that nite, our headlights revealed, the antenna pole was severely bent. We didn't notice anything else, because the lights were still out. The next morning, we discovered, that the extention we took off the top of the T, the fall before, which we left it lying in the pasture about 20' to the West, had been picked up, turned 45 degrees, and shoved into the NW window. It hit us hard enough that it cracked the drain on the tub, among other leaks, around vent pipes, etc. If GW county goes under a warning again, you can bet we'll be loaded up and leaving home then and there!

Posted by: sherrell Location: 1312swpolk
thank you for your help jem

Posted by: sherrell eldridge Location: 1312swpolk street
what is between a f4 and a reg tormadoes jeremy goodwin email me back my email addren

Posted by: Barry Location: Topeka
GO JEREMY GO! Gotta love having Jeremy Goodwin, God of Weather, on our Side!

Posted by: Bruce Location: Manhattan
Jeremy,thanks for pointing out you know how to do math. However, why don't we move the NBAF to Topeka and let you live with the danger of a release of deadly airborne pathogens from a tornado. Everyone wants Manhattan to have this "waiting to happen disaster" but the people who live in Manhattan. This was jammed down our throats so the town and university bigwigs could profit from the pay offs. Please take the NBAF someplace else. If not then it is time to move from this place before we are all killed from a release of deadly airborne pathogens.

Posted by: Kent Location: Manhattan
Russian Roulette involves people.... Manhattan's population has topped 50,000. San Antonio has more than 1,000,000. It makes no sense to have a location that has a higher frequency of tornadoes and could possibly effect a population that is more than 40 times as large......

Posted by: jeff Location: keats
In june of 1993 a tornado destroyed my farm and several houses just west of keats. I don't see it listed on this list. Wibw was there for a report on it. Why would it not be listed? I believe it was june 30 around 6:45 p.m.

Posted by: ernie Location: south of burlington ks
If you would keep out of the way [of the weather map and radar] and not block the view and not put up silly stuff about your self .people could see more about [about our area] . we matter to not just topeka, We might start watching another channel so we can see what's going on in the south part of the area also.Give us a break sometime ok?????

Posted by: Lois Location: Topeka
You go, Jeremy!! If the court comes up Manhattan sure wants you there to testify for them!!! I love it when someone 'big' makes a 'smart' remark and then someone like you proves them wrong as can be!! Thank you for all the work you do.

Posted by: karen Location: manhattan
I think they are just mad that they didn't get it. They would say anything to make Manhattan look bad. You've got the figures right here, my thought is .. Did they really think someone wouldn't look it up and see that it's worse there then it is here?! Thanks for showing the TRUE facts Jeremy! It all comes down to them wanting the money, the lab, and all that comes with it. Hate to tell them I think they lost this battle!!

Posted by: Brian Location: Manhattan
As being someone who has worked on the design/build aspects of MANY large scale government projects, this is a rediculous argument and provides a poor foundation for their argument. There are government regulations that require buildings to be built to certain standards based on the "Natural phenomena" hazards associated with the selected site.(i.e. tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricans, etc.). This building (mainly due to the contents within) will be built to withstand many variables including tornadoes for this site. Not all of the building will be constructed to withstand an F-5 but the areas which store the most critical components of the building will be required to be constructed for an F-5 with ADDITIONAL safeguards in place as well. The only good thing comming outta Texas is I-35 North bound!

Posted by: Deb Location: Melvern
I was hoping that someone smart would run the figures. I heard the argument and laughed, because Kansas is 3rd in tornados after Texas and Oklahoma. Thanks for the confirmation of my thought.

Posted by: Derek Location: MHK
I hope you can forward this to the government..... and to those texas fools....they are just mad because we are getting something bigger than them...lol

Posted by: WestMHK Doesn't San Antonio see its fair share of hurricanes (which have tornado-like winds and also spawn tornadoes on the backside)? Tornadoes hurricanes = I'd pick Manhattan too.

Posted by: Nathaniel Location: Topeka
Enough said, Jeremy stated the facts, AP.