At 11:30AM, I was helping (ok watching) my good friend Mark wash his Corvette. We started lunch at Noon with darkening clouds.
One of the hardest things to forecast is a "northwest flow" in the Jet Stream. Very small disturbances along the Jet Stream can result in precipitation. I missed this one, no doubt about it. Yes it is rare to see a weather person admit to being "wrong", but I was in this case. I expected rain to begin "after sunset". It began sooner. If I were "grilled" over this... I would use the second radar image below as evidence that most of the state had no precipitation. Unfortunately, at 2:05PM, the ESP Radar showed heavy rain right over downtown Topeka. Notice the second image from the same time is of the statewide version of the radar. One heavy shower... approximately 3 miles wide happened to hit the highest population possible for the time period. It crossed the heart of Topeka from west to east.
I may have to avoid any calls from Mark the next few days. He was so excited after he waxed that car. Kansas Weather can be humbling on some occasions. Today, is one of those occasions. JG