We are tracking a massive storm in Osborne County. This storm has a tornado risk and is moving into Jewell and Mitchell County. Mitchell County is under a Tornado Warning until Midnight.
A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect for areas along and north of I-70. The Watch expires at 6AM. Full text here... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0227.html
Radar Image... "Hook Echo" near Hill City. Storm now has a tornado warning for Rooks County. History of a brief tornado touchdown and softball size hail.
8:52PM Update - Western Kansas Storm
TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
SOUTHWESTERN NORTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
* UNTIL 945 PM CDT
* AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF NEW ALMELO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 27 MPH. THIS STORM HAS
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
Tornado risk from SPC is a smaller area now and a lower "risk". That said... we are tracking a tornado warning in Sheridan County, near Colby at this time. Will update you soon if it touches down.
Severe Storms are beginning to take shape in western Kansas. A "Watch" is likely to be issued shortly. This will the initiation of storms that are projected to move toward northeast Kansas tonight.
Our first "Storm Watch" of the day will be issued shortly. This will be in Oklahoma, but may cross into southern Kansas. Forecast is still on track for late night severe weather in northeast Kansas. Full text of this discussion from Storm Prediction Center is available here.... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0715.html
This map was updated by Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma at 3PM. It represents the "probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point". That means that if you live in Salina... there is a 1/10 chance of a tornado touching down within 25 miles of you. The statement is true for the entire area circled in dark brown with the 10%. Topeka is right on the border of the 5% risk. For perspective, during "major" outbreaks, these numbers can be in the 40% to 50% range. That said, this is still a risk and must be treated as such.
Web Weather video is updated. Longer explanation of SuperCast data included. Gives a good idea of when/where the greatest risk for severe weather will exist.
SuperCast imagery shows a significant surface low pressure area over Hays Kansas at 2AM. Note the thin black lines in a big circle around the low. Surface winds will flow approximately right along those lines. The line of storms from Republic County to Kansas City is along the "warm front". Winds are from the southwest below the front and from the Southeast above the front. Storms along that line will have the potential to rotate and tornadoes are definitely possible. The low pressure area and warm front will be moving east or northeast overnight and will give much of the area a risk of severe weather. If this projection plays out exactly... a Tornado Watch along and north of I-70 would be likely.
1:50PM A significant risk of severe weather is in place this evening and tonight for much of Kansas. The highest tornado risk is in central and north central Kansas, however the entire region must be monitored for dangerous weather. If you have any questions fire away. I will update this blog often today and tonight. The latest Severe Weather Risk, from the Storm Prediction Center is below.