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11:30PM Update: We are tracking a massive storm in Osborne County. This storm has a tornado risk and is moving into Jewell and Mitchell County. Mitchell County is under a Tornado Warning until Midnight. Jeremy
10:25PM Update A Severe T-Storm Watch is in effect for areas along and north of I-70. The Watch expires at 6AM. Full text here... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0227.html
9:41PM Radar Image... "Hook Echo" near Hill City. Storm now has a tornado warning for Rooks County. History of a brief tornado touchdown and softball size hail.
8:52PM Update - Western Kansas Storm TORNADO WARNING FOR... * UNTIL 945 PM CDT * AT 843 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
8:50PM update: Tornado Warning
8:30PM Update: Tornado risk from SPC is a smaller area now and a lower "risk". That said... we are tracking a tornado warning in Sheridan County, near Colby at this time. Will update you soon if it touches down.
6:00PM Update: Severe Storms are beginning to take shape in western Kansas. A "Watch" is likely to be issued shortly. This will the initiation of storms that are projected to move toward northeast Kansas tonight.
5:30PM Update: Our first "Storm Watch" of the day will be issued shortly. This will be in Oklahoma, but may cross into southern Kansas. Forecast is still on track for late night severe weather in northeast Kansas. Full text of this discussion from Storm Prediction Center is available here.... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0715.html
3:15PM Update: This map was updated by Storm Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma at 3PM. It represents the "probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point". That means that if you live in Salina... there is a 1/10 chance of a tornado touching down within 25 miles of you. The statement is true for the entire area circled in dark brown with the 10%. Topeka is right on the border of the 5% risk. For perspective, during "major" outbreaks, these numbers can be in the 40% to 50% range. That said, this is still a risk and must be treated as such.
2:45PM Update: Web Weather video is updated. Longer explanation of SuperCast data included. Gives a good idea of when/where the greatest risk for severe weather will exist. Jeremy
2:15PM Update SuperCast imagery shows a significant surface low pressure area over Hays Kansas at 2AM. Note the thin black lines in a big circle around the low. Surface winds will flow approximately right along those lines. The line of storms from Republic County to Kansas City is along the "warm front". Winds are from the southwest below the front and from the Southeast above the front. Storms along that line will have the potential to rotate and tornadoes are definitely possible. The low pressure area and warm front will be moving east or northeast overnight and will give much of the area a risk of severe weather. If this projection plays out exactly... a Tornado Watch along and north of I-70 would be likely.
1:50PM A significant risk of severe weather is in place this evening and tonight for much of Kansas. The highest tornado risk is in central and north central Kansas, however the entire region must be monitored for dangerous weather. If you have any questions fire away. I will update this blog often today and tonight. The latest Severe Weather Risk, from the Storm Prediction Center is below.
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Posted by: chris Location: marysville
10 storm chasers are in Marysville Posted by: Rod Location: Washington Thanks for the awesome coverage on TV! I watched your broadcast until the storm weakened in Washington County. We had 1.25" of rain, but 5 miles to our north had 4". Thanks again to everyone! Posted by: janice Location: concordia I'm glad the protective bubble worked for us again. I slept through everything. I didn't even know there was a tornado untill late this afternoon. Maybe i'll move my bedroom to the basement!! Posted by: Ben Location: Ozawkie I also have problems getting the streaming audio/video from the website. I have tried darn near everything like enabling cookies, to testing on other computers.. 10% of the time it works the other 90% it doesn't.. Not sure why.. Thank you Jeremy, Drew, and Candice for the coverage on TV.. Posted by: Priscilla Location: Wamego Winds are gone here. The storm in Concordia how fast is it moving and when will it reach Wamego or will we bypass it. The radar looks like we will catch the bottom end of it. Am I right. It's real quiet now, that is kind of scary; the calm before the storm. Should we be worried here. Thanks Storm misse you. Went north. More t-storms are developing and moving your way for 5AM(ish). Doubt they will be severe, but could have small hail and winds to 40. Jeremy Posted by: Wyatt Location: Manhattan Do you think we are still going to receive heavy rain and large hail in Manhattan. When do you think it will be here? Thanks for the help? You will likely see heavy rain around 5AM. Doubt hail will be too large if you get it. Jeremy Posted by: Mary Location: Wamego I am basically on the wabaunsee co/ pottawottomie county line in wamego and the wind has really picked up here. It looks like we are ahead of the storms,they seem to be building to the south of the supercell from what i can tell on the radar. This is scary weather! Posted by: Priscilla Location: Wamego It's about 1:45 here. Winds just started picking up. Will stay up also. TV keeps cutting out can't get much on computer. Can you tell me what's going on. How far away is the middle of the cell from us and how much longer for it to pass over. Thanks for everything. Your great. Sorry I am late getting back to you. Looks like rotation has dropped off for now. Will let you know if it picks up again. Jeremy Posted by: Mary Location: Wamego Hi. The wind has picked up here and it is eerie outside. How soon will the storm be here? These storms are scary because it is dark outside and u can't see what is going on. Not sure where you are? JG Posted by: Rachael Location: Topeka Posted by: Seth Location: Clyde,KS It looks 50/50 Clyde will get hit, whats your opinions?? Close. Very close. JG Posted by: BW Location: Seneca Thanks for the great coverage of the NC KS counties of Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Republic. My family is in Jewell and kind of a 'black hole' for television coverage. I really appreciate it and thanks for staying up to cover the severe weather. Posted by: Anita Location: Topeka I am terrified of tornadoes and don't have a basement. You said at 10:00 that so far the storms are going North of Topeka. Does it still look that way? I live on North 46th St. Still looks that way. Jeremy Posted by: Mary Location: Wamego Hey Jeremy I think I will stay up after all. You and Drew say the tornado is moving along Hwy 24 and that runs through Wamego. It has stayed together for 6 hours right? It should be here around 2am if it stays together as it has, is that what u think? I have an 18 month old daughter to consider so I would rather not take the chance of not waking up in time. Let me know what u think ok. Thanks to you and Drew both for keeping all of us safe:) Looking better for you now. Storm is pulling a little farther north. Jeremy Posted by: Mary Location: Wamego To the person in Marshall county I can't see anything either I can only hear Jeremy and Drew so you are not alone Anyone else having this issue? Please tell me about it... and we will try to get you back up and running. Jeremy Posted by: Dan Location: Pott County That storm by Osborne on radar looks like it has a big hook to it can we get a screen shot like the last one by hill city? Tough to do right now... will try. Jeremy Posted by: Mike Location: Topeka Is there a high risk of that strom in Michell county to split off into other storms or will stay like it is? Will likely stay as is. Jeremy Posted by: C Location: Marshall county Is it just my computer or is anyone else having problems with streaming coverage? I can hear but cannot see anything in my box. Posted by: Mary Location: Wamego Hi Jeremy. Do you think the risk of tornadoes is gone for Wamego? It looks like the worst is heading to Nebraska. I don't have a weather radio and I don't want to go to bed if there could be a tornado because I don't think I would hear the sirens. Thought I would see what you think. Thanks:) You are probably OK. Would prefer you would get up about 2AM to check in on that massive storm to your west... it is your only threat. By then, it will be obvious if it is still a problem for you. Jeremy Posted by: Mike Location: Topeka I am watching the live stream do u think that tornado storm will take a SE track? Because it looks like to me it is pushing SE. It has been curving back and forth for 6 hours. It won't dive southeast very far if it does. Jeremy Posted by: Rusty Location: Clyde,KS As Dale posted earlier...are you going to run livestream?? It's on. Look at top of www.wibw.com/weather Jeremy Posted by: Derek Location: Manhattan Jeremy, From your forecast it looks like the low pressure center will be far enough north that all the "big" storms will stay north of Manhattan. What do you think? We always miss all the fun here! ;) ps I like the hook echo pic, its a good shot of it. Hope you are right. :) Jeremy Posted by: Seth Location: Clyde KS Clyde is going to get missed by everything right?? No. That monster cell west of Concordia may still hit you. I hope it does not. Jeremy Posted by: C Location: Marshall county Thanks Jeremy! I think I might stay up a little while longer and then go to bed. If its just hail, it will wake me up anyway. The joys of having a tin roof. Thanks again you are great! You are quite welcome. Jeremy Posted by: C Location: Marshall county Do we have much of a big risk here, just wondering if I should stay up awhile or go to bed. Your call. Most likely threat tonight is hail. Jeremy Posted by: Jane Location: Nemaha County Just started raining here, along with thunder and lighting 11 pm. Hopefully won't get much more than that. Thanks so much for your great weather!! Posted by: Dale Location: Clay Center Are you going to run the live stream tonight?? Posted by: priscilla Location: wamego Hi Jeremy. Where is Rooks and Sheridan County from Wamego and Pottawatomie. Not being from here, I'm getting a little nervous. I keep going outside to check, I see clouds and star mixture. What is that about. Can you ease my nerves and let me know if anything is going to happen here and around about what time. I will be up, I'm too nerved to sleep. Thanks and keep up the good work. Are we going to have any sunshine tomorrow. My daughter-in-law is flying in from LA tomorrow night to meet my son. Will the weather be ok for that. Thanks. LONG... way from you. Hail core on that storm is 170 miles to your west. Just got a severe t-storm watch for you though. Details in a moment. Jeremy Posted by: Seth Location: Clyde,KS pixels starting to show a little red north of concordia. Is this the starting potential of some severe weather in this area?? That is very possible. Jeremy Posted by: Jim Location: Blaine I was wondering what would be the most efficient means of contacting you guys during the storm to report conditions. I plan on picking up a buddy and watching the show if it shows enough potential. weather@wibw.com is the best way to submit. or, call 785-272-6397 and leave a message with answering service. Jeremy Posted by: Mike Location: Topeka If the tornado sirens are still not working in Topeka how will we know if a tornado warning is issed for Shawnee county tonight? Sirens are working in Topeka now. But... sirens are only meant for people who are outdoors. Best way to get waken up for a warning is a NOAA Weather Radio. Jeremy Posted by: nancy Location: north of olsburg so... do you think northwestern pott.co. will get storms tonight? Yes. Going to be very late. Jeremy Posted by: Gary Location: Manhattan Kansas How in the heck is there not a tornado watch where all those tornadoes are?? Severe T-Storm Watch mentions the risk of an isolated tornado in many cases. Here is part of the watch - "DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVE EWD FROM CO TO KS/NEB. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SUGGEST THIS THREAT IS LIMITED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING." http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0226.html Posted by: Seth Location: Clyde Kansas Does WIBW have there weather chasers chasing this tornadic storm near hill city?? No. Darin broke off of it. When it gets dark, it's more dangerous to chase. Jeremy Posted by: Batina Nielsen Location: Fort Riley what are the chances of the storm coming over Fort Riley, and do you have a time estimate? Thank You!! I think your weather perdictions have been really good. I am from Monterey, CA I have learned a lot about weather from watching you. Going to be a few hours. Most likely after Midnight. Rain chance is very high. Thanks for the kind words. :) Jeremy Posted by: Lisa Location: Topeka Well,Jeremy, It's almost 9 and there is nothing on the weather tv about any warnings. Are they all over, or have they not hit in our areass yet? Take Care,Lisa It's going to be a late night event. Likely after Midnight for most of the 13 Viewing area. Tracking a nasty storm approaching Hill City right now. Still 130 miles west of Concordia. Jeremy Posted by: darren Location: Nowhere,KS those storms are starting to aim for the viewing area! So far it dont look like it will go tornadic will it?? Storm near Seldon Kansas has hail larger than baseballs and a possible tornado. Risk is still there for us. Jeremy Posted by: John Location: Topeka What is the risk for tornadoes in shawnee county? Definately a risk here. Tracking a tornado warning in Sheridan County right now. Threat makes it over here late tonight. Jeremy Posted by: Anonymous Location: Hartford/Neosho Rapids Jeremy, it appears from the blogs and maps that S. Lyon county might not get the brunt of the storms. Are the storms going to stay mostly North of us? Thank you so much for your on-the-toes coverage!! Always rely on WIBW, you and your team! You are reading it the same as me. Looks likely that it will stay north of you. I hope so anyway. Jeremy Posted by: BRITTNEY Location: TOPEKA (SHANEE) R WE GOING TO HAVE A TORNADO TONIGHT??? Tracking a tornado warning in western Kansas right now. Jeremy Posted by: Mary Location: Wamego Hi again Jeremy. Do you think we will be put under a tornado watch soon? What time do you think the storms will be in Wamego? I was in the Andover tornado in 1991 so this whole tornado thing makes me nervous. Thank you for staying on top of things and keeping us aware of the situation. Going to be long while before we have a Watch. Probably a Severe Thunderstorm Watch... would guess it gets issued around Midnight. Jeremy Posted by: Wally Location: Topeka Thanks again Jeremy! Posted by: Seth Location: Clyde Kansas I cant wait for the return of livestream :P Will start at 10:35PM. Jeremy Posted by: #20 Location: alma, ks are you expecting large out breaks of tornadoes, or are they going to be up north?? i've been watching supercast and it looks like we are just gonna get some rain possibly some thunder storms should i be concerned about tornadoes? Tornado risk is still in place. Greatest risk is north of I-70 late. Jeremy Posted by: Rockmore Location: NCK eh it looks like the storms are really popping up fast in the western kansas area, would you estimate around 11ish when these storms will pop up in north central kansas?? That is a good estimate. Jeremy Posted by: Dave Location: Paxico We have a weather radio but often turn it off because of all the warnings such as flash flood, severe thunderstorm, etc that we really don't need. Is there any way to get a radio to receive *just* tornado warnings? That's the only warning we really need. Never tried to do that. Anybody have an answer. Jeremy Posted by: bigdaddy Location: osage so we have nothing to worry about in osage co????t-storms or tornado's I didn't say that. Greatest risk is north of I-70... but there is still a risk in Osage. Just not as high. Jeremy Posted by: Anonymous Jeremy - I just want to thank you for the wonderful coverage you give all of us in NE KS! Thank you for helping us be prepared! :) Thanks, Jeremy Posted by: priscilla Location: wamego Thanks Jeremy. It took me a while to figure out where Pottawatomie County is, but the phone book came in handy, which let me know Wamego is just a little east of Manhattan. I know the base is only about 15-20 miles from here. I checked the basement for supplies. I will be ok. Thanks for your help and by the way I love KS. Let's all hope our soldiers at Ft. Riley will stay as dry as possible. Looking forward to your update at 6 pm You are quite welcome. Posted by: Jerry Location: North of Republican River is there going to be that livestream weather thing tonight?? if so you wibw weather team pwnz! Pwning is what we do at WIBW. :) We will run a stream tonight. If anything pops before the 10PM Newscast, we will start it early. If no storms have appeared by then, we will just go to the stream at 10:35PM after the Newscast. Will run it all night. Posted by: Ben Location: Ozawkie When I said Bonkers, i was meaning that some models of Weather Radios has a alert tone, like a alarm clock. Posted by: Rusty Location: Clyde,KS Clyde Kansas is the same way but then again Clyde is only 13 miles east of Concordia. Clyde has never got hit by anything intense to be honest! Posted by: janice Location: United States I love watching the lightening from the storms but here in Concordia we seem to be in a protected bubble. All the areas around us get pummeled and we don't get a drop, whats up with that? Probably just perspective. If you consider the size of Concordia... verses what you would see as "areas around"... the odds are much higher of something being close than actually hitting you. You could compare it to bowling. For me... I am much more likely to hit something other than the "head pin". :)Hope that helps? Jeremy Posted by: Karen Location: Topeka Ben, I'm not sure if I'm misunderstanding you but I've never had problems w/ my weather radio (purchased at Walmart) after programming my County (which is of course Shawnee). Posted by: Ben Location: Ozawkie Yes, Best Buy, Wal-Mart, even Dillions had them.. I also know you can listen online.. BUT, they do not give WARNING Alerts in your area. (Most weather radios go bonkers when you set your county up for Warnings) Link to the online weather radio is.. http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/smallplayer.htm Posted by: BW Location: Seneca Jeremy, You mention NOAA weather radios. Do you know where they are available for purchase? Thank you. Radio Shack has them. Best Buy does as well. I think that Wal-Mart does. They are fairly easy to find. Anybody else want to suggest a store... please do. Jeremy Posted by: priscilla Location: wamego I am visiting from LA. Not used to this. My son stationed at Ft. Riley and will not be home until tomorrow. Am I in danger here in Wamego and when should I expect it. I don't even know what county this is. Could you please help me out here. Thanks. You are in Pottawatomie County. Wamego is on the southern border of the county... right above Wabaunsee County. You have a tornado risk, but there is no reason to fear. Just be prepared in case it happens. There is a risk for tornadoes between 11PM and 5AM for you. Of course, that's when most people are asleep... so it's a must to know the risk before hitting the bed. One way to stay informed late at night is a NOAA Weather Radio with SAME technology. Basically, you can program it to notify you for warnings in your county. If you have a basement... that's the best place to go during a tornado. Stay away from windows and put as many walls as possible between you and the outside of the house. Many people in Kansas have never seen a tornado. They are more common here than anywhere in the world, but your chances of being harmed are quite low. We do our best to inform folks and most Kansans do a great job of preparing and reacting to the warnings. It's just a part of life here. We are always here when wild weather strikes. You can watch us on TV or on the web for coverage. If you have questions, please don't hesitate to ask us. Welcome to Kansas. :) Jeremy Posted by: Rusty Location: Clyde,KS is clyde,ks in the bigger tornado chance area?? Yes. Jeremy Posted by: Anonymous Location: Topeka My son is scheduled to play baseball tonight here in Topeka, beginning at 6:30. Do you think the storms will be here by then? Should be OK at 6:30. Possible to see a few sprinkles or light rain then, but the dangerous stuff is later. Much later. Jeremy Posted by: Mary Location: Wamego Hi Jeremy. When do you think the severe weather eill affect Wamego? Are we at risk for tornados? I have a baby and will stay up late if the weather is going to get bad tonight. Thanks You do have a chance of tornadoes late tonight. Stay in touch with me on the web... and I will let you know when the risk passes by. Not sure on an exact time for you yet, but it could be very late. Jeremy Posted by: Anonymous Location: Ft Riley Hey Jeremy do you have a supercast of about 9:00pm that you could post to give people an idea of where things may be progressing at that time? Check Web Weather. On right side of www.wibw.com/weather. Video will be updated in a moment... I go through the entire run of SuperCast. New Data will be available around 4PM. Jeremy Posted by: Anonymous I am 20 miles south of the Ft. Riley area would it be safe to say that we are at a lower risk for severe weather and may not be included in a tornado watch if one was issued? I would project that you would be in the southern portion of a Tornado Watch. This is of course a projection. Would not put you in the clear just yet. I would say that I see a higher risk north of you... but please don't let your guard down just yet. Jeremy Jeremy Posted by: Pat Location: Jackson County I am new to the mayetta area, I never hear any specific information about that area. What clues should I take from your reports that I am potentially in a bad weather situation? If severe weather is heading for Mayetta... we will let you know. During our daily forecasts we don't always mention Mayetta... but in Severe Weather Coverage... we mention all towns in the path. You can always ask me for more details on the blog of course. :) Jeremy Posted by: Kristin Location: Topeka We're new to Kansas, all this tornado stuff is new...how does Topeka look for tonight?? We have a risk of tornadoes late. Going to be after 11PM. If you have a NOAA Weather Radio, make sure it's ready tonight. We will have coverage on TV and on the Web. Let me know if you have any questions at all. Welcome to Topeka. :) Jeremy Posted by: Anonymous What do you think about the Morris county area? Such locations as Dwight and Alta Vista Area? Do you see a signifigant potential for severe weather and possibly tornadic events in that area? I just put up a map with the 2AM projection of the storm system. The warm front is currently projected to pass you between 9PM and 11PM. Your risk would end earlier than that north of I-70. When the winds shift to the Southwest at your home... the threat will drop dramatically for your location. As long as your surface winds are from the east or southeast... I would remain on guard. Jeremy Posted by: superliner3 Location: Topeka I'll have my weather radio with me at choir rehearsal tonight. We start at 7:30... does the weather danger begin then, or do you think it will be later? It appears that the danger is later than 7:30PM. I hate to give you the "all clear" for that time period, but certainly the greatest risk is much later. Jeremy Posted by: jan Location: marysville What about Marysville? Any storms up North? Marysville has a slightly higher risk than Manhattan and significantly higher than southern Kansas. I am about to post a new map that may explain it a little better. Jeremy Posted by: Andy Location: Manhattan What do you think will happen in Manhattan this evening and overnight? Rain chances begin after 7PM in Manhattan. Severe Weather risk is greatest from 11PM to 7AM with a maximimum threat of 2AM to 5AM. Jeremy |
