Travel Forecast Concerns - Jeremy Answers Your Questions

Travel Forecast Concerns - Jeremy Answers Your Questions

Friday Afternoon Update:

OK... it's here. 

Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory is now in place.

2 - 4 " expected... with winds gusting over 30 at times on Saturday. 

If you are traveling east on Saturday... this will be the worst case.  The storm will be traveling the same direction with you and it is likely that you will see snow falling during the entire drive.  If it were me... in the car with Grandma... I would leave this evening... or wait until Sunday. 

If you are traveling south on Saturday... Oklahoma will also have snow into the afternoon.  Waiting until afternoon to make the trip may help, but waiting until Sunday is optimal.   If it were me... in the car with Grandma... I would leave this evening... or wait until Sunday.  

If you are traveling north on Saturday.  Nebraska will begin to clear out by late afternoon.  Blowing snow will keep some snow on the roadways... but the heaviest accumulation will be finished.  I don't recommend making the drive in the morning, or early afternoon.  But by late afternoon or evening... check the radar and it may be possible by then.  Leaving Friday evening or Sunday are excellent choices.

If you are going west on Saturday.  I do not recommend this trip in the morning.  Snow and Blowing snow will exit western Kansas by early afternoon.  I recommend Friday evening... or Saturday evening at the earliest.  Sunday... again is an excellent choice.

Questions - Just ask.

weather@wibw.com

Jeremy

 

 Thursday afternoon update.

Computer forecasting models continue to show snow on Saturday morning... potentially lasting into early afternoon.  The first image is for 6PM on Saturday evening.  The "bulls-eye" over Kansas City shows 4 or 5 inches of snow there.  This is the "GFS" model.  My analysis of heaviest snowfall east of Topeka... with difficult travel that direction... still looks strong.  Northeast Kansas is still likely to see a couple of inches.

 

 This is the "ETA" forecast model for 6PM Saturday.  This solution shows a longer lasting event.  Notice that central Kansas is still in snow on this image.  Either solution you go with... gives an accumulation in northeast Kansas... but the heaviest activity still east. 

If you have any questions... let me know.

Jeremy

 

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Archive Data!

Wednesday Evening Update:

Looking for 1 or 2 inches of snow for northeast Kansas.  Most likely period for snow... is from 5AM Saturday until Noon Saturday.  Roads are likely to be snow-packed in the early morning.

I will have another update on Thursday afternoon. 

Please check back,

Jeremy

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 Archive Data!

Tuesday Afternoon Update:

Good News... for the immediate area.  Latest analysis develops the storm farther east.  But... for travelers who are heading to Illinois/Indiana/Ohio... or anywhere in New England... you will want to keep a close eye on conditions.  Also... for those who are flying... a system of this size will definitely slow down flights from east coast airports. 

Good News again.  Out of the 3 forecast maps I have below... you will note that the worst case so far for northeast Kansas was about 2 inches of snow.  Concern was that the system might develop farther west than initial guidance suggested.  But... with the new solutions coming in farther east... our situation is looking much better.

Will have more updates to follow.

Note:  All maps below are for the same period.... Saturday evening.

Jeremy

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 Archive Data!

Monday Night Update:

New run of computer model has arrived... now showing the snow-storm potential as further south!  This will "wobble" back and forth some... but the closer we get to the actual event... there is a  likelihood that travel will be impacted by a winter storm this weekend.  This also shows the storm maturing farther east than the previous run.  Much to be determined here. Check back often.

Jeremy

Monday Night Image:

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Archive Data!

There will be a HUGE number of travelers this weekend through Christmas.  I am writing this update on Monday... the 17th... but computer forecast models are already picking up on a potential snowstorm  This is subject to change... but let's start talking about it early.  On the map shown below, the thick red line indicates the freezing line at cloud level.  Anything north of or west of the red is snow.  The map is for 0000 Sunday Universal Time, which is 6PM Saturday Central Standard.  If the model is correct... a major snowstorm will be in progress in eastern Nebraska and central Iowa. Again... assuming that the computer is 100% correct 5 days out... this computer solution would indicate 2 inches of snow for much of northeast Kansas on Saturday evening. 

So... where are you heading?  When? 

Check back often... I will answer your questions here and update the map each time new data becomes available.

Jeremy 

Monday Afternoon Image:

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